Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric naive lstm xgboost cnn
diff_of_means -1.098 1.455 7.534 -19.723
ratio_of_sd 0.830 0.809 0.857 0.902
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.539 0.581 0.529 0.687
maximum_error 0.302 0.339 0.277 0.240
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.587 0.333 0.436 0.316
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.815 0.832 0.951 0.810
qqplot_mae 0.029 0.032 0.018 0.039
acf_mae 0.152 0.111 0.110 0.087
extremogram_mae 0.109 0.058 0.083 0.065

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric lstm xgboost naive cnn
diff_of_means -1.320 4.573 -4.781 -19.525
ratio_of_sd 0.849 0.878 0.894 0.913
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.591 0.526 0.552 0.666
maximum_error 0.340 0.270 0.316 0.262
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.227 0.387 0.378 0.196
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.798 0.901 0.792 0.781
qqplot_mae 0.033 0.019 0.028 0.046
acf_mae 0.117 0.121 0.147 0.075
extremogram_mae 0.069 0.090 0.117 0.057

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means -1.299 -4.318 5.570 -18.845
ratio_of_sd 0.870 0.901 0.890 0.914
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.590 0.551 0.533 0.663
maximum_error 0.348 0.315 0.267 0.259
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.292 0.474 0.407 0.277
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.819 0.808 0.937 0.796
qqplot_mae 0.031 0.026 0.017 0.044
acf_mae 0.115 0.154 0.117 0.079
extremogram_mae 0.078 0.124 0.094 0.063

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric xgboost cnn lstm naive
diff_of_means -18.592 -19.040 -22.314 -24.890
ratio_of_sd 0.933 0.934 0.892 0.884
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.618 0.745 0.703 0.599
maximum_error 0.285 0.245 0.346 0.295
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.340 0.183 0.206 0.442
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.740 0.773 0.669 0.655
qqplot_mae 0.037 0.034 0.046 0.053
acf_mae 0.145 0.098 0.126 0.182
extremogram_mae 0.082 0.046 0.049 0.103

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric cnn naive lstm xgboost
diff_of_means -17.250 19.995 20.644 30.082
ratio_of_sd 0.887 0.709 0.711 0.707
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.651 0.451 0.491 0.416
maximum_error 0.259 0.281 0.333 0.248
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.248 0.569 0.263 0.461
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.880 0.995 1.026 1.204
qqplot_mae 0.043 0.037 0.044 0.041
acf_mae 0.097 0.171 0.115 0.128
extremogram_mae 0.084 0.161 0.081 0.127

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric naive lstm xgboost cnn
diff_of_means 6.056 7.760 17.315 -20.448
ratio_of_sd 0.787 0.790 0.784 0.920
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.511 0.562 0.487 0.694
maximum_error 0.275 0.319 0.240 0.247
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.565 0.269 0.461 0.304
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.874 0.916 1.060 0.851
qqplot_mae 0.029 0.033 0.025 0.036
acf_mae 0.154 0.103 0.108 0.092
extremogram_mae 0.106 0.048 0.078 0.061

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric cnn naive lstm xgboost
diff_of_means -16.461 18.193 18.707 28.620
ratio_of_sd 0.898 0.734 0.733 0.728
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.644 0.465 0.500 0.427
maximum_error 0.266 0.276 0.325 0.252
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.261 0.473 0.255 0.409
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.870 0.979 1.012 1.192
qqplot_mae 0.044 0.036 0.043 0.040
acf_mae 0.088 0.153 0.111 0.109
extremogram_mae 0.069 0.135 0.078 0.106

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97